Unsurprisingly, Singapore, an island country, is prone to sea level rise. Mean sea level around Singapore is projected to rise by 1m by 2100. This sea level rise will be further amplified to 4-5m if storm surge, land subsidence and tidal activities are taken into account. This means that by 2100, 30% of the land will be below the projected sea level. For a small country of the third highest population in the world and surrounded by sea, Singapore's key mission is to protect the land from sea level rise at all cost.
Singapore goverment has been carrying out site-specific studies for vulnerable areas, starting with City-East Coast, Jurong Island and the north-west coast of Singapore. Implementing and fortifying dikes and storm-surge barriers to increase flood risk protection seems the most obvious way forward, however, this strategy does have its own technical, economical and societal consequences and limitations, especially if Paris climate agreements fails to sufficiently limit global temperature rise.
Watching Avatar 2: The Way of Water, I was awed by the floating houses built in the giant mangrove-like trees alongside the shores that are connected by tensile and woven walkways; the cascading reef barriers protecting the inhabittants from crashing waves. Letting my creativity run wild, I jot down my vision of Singapore in 2100 or later, to create a sustainable way of living it, if Plan A is no longer sufficient.
So what is Plan B?
Plan B envisions a Singapore without dikes, dams, or land reclamation. Singaporeans would have to live above sea level. That means shifting coastline, and moving people, assets and economic activities to higher ground. The Central Business District area of Singapore (e.g. Marina Bay, Raffle Place and City Hall) could be reconstructed behind the new coastline. However, with the emerging work from home culture and e-commerce, the CBD can be re-scaled to fit the actual needs and open up more space for housing and recreational activities.
Inevitably, the east and west coast will be submerged, including the iconic East Coast Park and Marina Barrage. However, that would create an opportunity to create a much larger coastal reservoir that can double up as flood control, water supply and power generation. Enclosed by natural barriers to diminish the wave forces while creating new habitat for fish and other organism, stable -inter-connectivity network can then be established between the mainland and the sea.
Source: Deltares, 2020
The submerged assets would definitely not be by-gone. The remainders of the coast would be retrofitted e.g. elevating existing buildings on piles and mounds and refocusing their objectives to recreation and agri-tech. In addition, turning existing nature parks, such as Berlayer Creek, into floodable coastal parks - parks designed to flood - would help the communities learn to adapt to climate change, while conserving the biodiversity.
Credit: Stichting Blauwe Lijn, 2021
Many may argue that Singapore cannot afford to retreat due its already land scarcity. Still, looking back at history, Mahabharata’s Krishna Capital, Dwarka, (12.000 B.C.) had been discovered 12 meters under the Gujarat Gulf; Torah’s four-rivers topographic description of Eden was found under the Persian Gulf. Traces of the previous climate change and its impact to the ancient cities have demonstrated that there will inescapably be a tipping point at which sea level rise is no longer a "threat" but an "evolution" we will have to address. And Plan B have always been part of the nation's adaptation pathways, along with Plan A, which allows decision-makers to take actions under uncertainty. While counting on Plan A to work, Plan B calls for rethinking and re-planning the spatial future of Singapore.
As this may sound like a defeat, this sketches a positive alternative for the future of Singapore, in which Singapore deals with water in a very different way from its conventional approach. Singapore can continue, not only existing, but thriving, by embracing the life on the water and co-operating with nature.
Post Note: The blog article is inspired by Panorama New Netherlands (2020)
Credit: Background photo is credited to Mr. Chong Zhiwei
